I just want to preface this by saying these are just my first impressions, based only on contestants that have either made a detailed confessional, or otherwise made an impact on the game. These will probably be hysterically wrong come post-season, but oh well, let’s get to it. Here is my unnecessarily long pre-game evaluation list, which I may add to if I get more people to properly evaluate:
Alina’s interesting to me. She’s new to these games, but she seems like she understands just how important the social game is. She’s seemingly managed to integrate herself socially with many of the players and is managing to come off as likable. My only fear for her moving forward is her naivete. She wants an alliance for security, but I’m not sure if she’s gonna know when to jump ship from the typically ill-fated early game multiple person alliances. If she doesn’t, she may be forced to scramble more than she wants to for an UTR game. I see her definitely making the merge, and I could definitely see her win.
Charlie, from what people seem to be saying, seems to be a lot like our dear Host Brian. He comes off as intelligent and charismatic, but people are getting the sense that he’s selling snake oil the whole time. If enough people discuss his snake-like nature, there’ll band together to boot him. That being said, I don’t see that happening, much like in our season, because everyone either thinks they can control the snake, or even think they have an ultimate loyalty to them. (Still love ya’ Bri! <3 ) I see him placing mid jury, but he’s definitely in contention to win the game.
Denise seems like she has a good head on her shoulders, and she obviously knows the game and the strategy around it. That being said, I get a very anti social vibe from her, and regardless of how good she plays I’m worried she won’t be able to make the pivotal social connections needed to win this type of game. She kinda reminds me of Cowboy Rick of all people, oddly enough: A solid strategist, but her trouble making social connections takes her out mid-to-late jury because her allies see her as expendable. Unless she brings serious game, she’ll be a juror come finale night.
Edgardo is smart, but like Natalie said, I feel like he thinks he’s smarter than he actually is, kinda like your’s truly.
He obviously knows the game well, especially if he’s willing to remember a season like Fiji, and I think he’s solid on the strategic front and knowing who to allign with. Again, it comes down to social game, and unless he improves the impression he gives to others, he’ll probably meet Edgardo’s fate from before.
Right now, I don’t see good things for Kelly. She has decent confessionals, but she’s definitely seems new to these things, and her strategic hesitance is obvious. She wants to allign with Colby because he liked one of her posts, and Lex because it would be odd for their characters to allign? She seems to into the whole alias side of things, and I don’t trust her to have a solid, effective strategy moving forward. Then again, given who she chose for her alias, she assuredly knows her Survivor, so maybe I’m wrong her. Provided there’s no streams of inactives, however, I don’t see Kelly making it past prejury right now.
Malcolm earns serious props for looking at previous seasons and analyzing where we went wrong. I mean, they're decently obvious lessons you would have if you're a veteran of ORG'S, but I don't get that feeling from him - I get the feeling that he's a smart superfan who's just started these kind of games, kind of like me in Greece, with only one prejury under my belt. Also, his caution regarding pre game alliances makes me respect him even more. This guy is gonna go far. My only problem is his self-perception may get too bloated, because he’s already not as well liked as he may think. I think he could either go around merge time, or make a shot for the title.
Natalie reeks of being a veteran, and his smarmy confessionals are putting me off a bit. In my experience, she’s exactly the type of player I hate to allign with - her entire first impressions list seemed about as judgemental as something you’d find on the Survivor subreddit or Sucks. But, judging from how she seems to be liked by some of the contestants, maybe it’s just me. That being said, I fear a Katie-esque finish for her if she rubs too many people the wrong way down the line, should she get some power. All in all, I see her finishing early-to-mid jury, especially since more astute social gamers, like Alina, are already seeing through her.
I do not see foresee good things for Vytas at all. He’s playing the game really hard right out of the gate, he’s doing it transparently, and he doesn’t have the social grace to have actual allies at this point. Multiple people have brought him up as an annoyance even pre-game, so I simply don’t see him right now as anything more than a pawn. That can change in time, as people become more socially comfortable, but right now the path’s seem pretty limited. Sorry Aras, but I just can’t see your brother winning the game.
The others either didn’t post a confessional, the had very minimal confessionals, or Jeremy for whatever reason deemed that I couldn’t see their confessional. (CoughColbyCough) I will make a note to say Alina was saying positive things about Sandra, so I would keep an eye on her, but I don’t have enough material to make any sort of evaluation of her.
Winner Pick: As much as I want to pick Brian, so our Brian can be the Brian That Sucks, there’s absolutely nothing to back that up. For me, its a tossup between Alina and Malcolm, but I’m gonna give the edge to Malcolm. I fear he may overplay himself, but he’s more comfortable in these situations than Alina is, so I think he has an overall better shot than her. If I had to pick the first out from those I evaluated, it would probably be Vytas, although I could see a scenario where Edgardo rubs some people the wrong way. Natalie is more vitriolic, but I think she can definitely downplay it more.
He obviously knows the game well, especially if he’s willing to remember a season like Fiji, and I think he’s solid on the strategic front and knowing who to allign with. Again, it comes down to social game, and unless he improves the impression he gives to others, he’ll probably meet Edgardo’s fate from before.